RISMEDIA,
July 14, 2008-Amidst the gloom on Wall Street about housing someone forgot to
check the stats. The National Association of Realtors® has now reported four
straight months of rising housing prices, but it seems no one is
listening.
According
to NAR statistics, the median home price has fallen from a high of $230,200 in
July 2006 to a low in February 2008 at $195,600, a drop of 15%. Since February,
however, it has risen steadily every month. By May the index (which will be
revised on July 24) had risen to $208,600, up $13,000 and a full 6.6%. Another
indicator, the mean home price (otherwise known as the average home price), has
also shown strength and has risen from a low of $242,000 also in February of
this year to $253,100, a rise of $11,100 or 4.5%. It, too, has risen every month
since February of this year.
“I just
don’t know where Wall Street’s brains are today,” said David Michonski, CEO of
Coldwell Banker Hunt Kennedy in New
York City. “Everyone on the Street is wringing their
hands over housing when in fact the average American has been out this spring
buying homes and pushing the median price higher. This has got to go down as one
of Wall Street and Main
Street’s biggest disconnects in
history.”
In
addition, on an annualized basis the volume of home sales has also risen
somewhat from a low of 4,890,000 homes in January to 4,990,000 in
May.
“Rising
prices on expanding volume should not a crisis make on Wall Street,” says
Michonski.
So why the
crisis?
“They say
that there are bulls and bears on Wall Street but there are also pigs. Pigs try
not just to profit from a crisis but create one to profit from. Today there are
just so many people who have positioned themselves to profit from a crisis that
they refuse to admit the reality of what is happening on Main Street. It
might hurt their positions.”
Is this the
bottom?
“No one can
know for sure, but the hard data is clear. The median price has risen four
straight months. The average American is out there taking advantage of bargains
in their local real estate market. They are not listening to Wall Street but
following their own belief that the best time to buy is when no one else is, and
they are out there buying. If this keeps up, February may prove to have been the
low in prices.”
“It is
possible that it will not be Hank Paulson or Ben Bernanke who will pull this
country out of a housing recession, but the good common sense of the average
American whose affordability to buy a home is at a five year high and is acting
on it.”
Posted on
Friday, July 18, 2008
by RISMEDIA